From Yahoo!:
"...Only half the population understands what a precipitation forecast means well enough to make a fully informed answer, a new study finds.
If, for example, a forecast calls for a 20 percent chance of rain, many people think it means that it will rain over 20 percent of the area covered by the forecast. Others think it will rain for 20 percent of the time, said Susan Joslyn, a cognitive psychologist at the University of Washington who conducted the study."
That is soooooo reality show cast of the population.
I was going to go camping last weekend and had to verify that "40% chance or thunderstorms" meant what I thought it did. I excused my dumbassery because I was desperately looking for a solid excuse not to go. I'll concede, however, that it probably does make me gullible enough for reality television.
Posted by: Kevin Babbles | April 21, 2009 at 02:57 AM
While I fully endorse the notion that 50% of any given population is comprised of idiots, let's not forget the real reason meteorologists use percentages: rather than go out on a limb and say "there's hardly any chance of rain", they fire up the random ratio generator, thereby ensuring their no-nothing asses are 100% covered in case it starts pissing buckets.
Also, is it correct to assume that Little Edie is giving the new HBO movie her seal of approval up there? (Been dying for some kind of review from you Rich!)
Posted by: spazmo | April 21, 2009 at 07:15 AM
HA!
Posted by: j | April 21, 2009 at 08:20 AM
I love when they do these kinds of studies, it never fails to blow my mind. Like 42% don't know the name of the Vice President, or 64% "aren't sure" the theory of evolution is legit. My favorite is the "believes in angels" statistic, always disturbingly high.
Posted by: Justine | April 21, 2009 at 10:22 AM
The problem is that these studies are comprised of university students who are required to be in the study, people who need the money, and people who are just bored.
They can't get anyone of regular intelligence without any motive to skew the results because all of those people have jobs (and non-work commitments) and no time for studies about who understands what the word "chance" means.
Posted by: RP | April 21, 2009 at 02:41 PM
@RP
Yeah, university students are notoriously dumb.
Posted by: Tadzio | April 21, 2009 at 03:13 PM
I used to think that RVs were called "Bagos" cause my mom always wanted to "Win a Bago." I shortly realized that they were called Winnebagos and then I turned six.
Posted by: kathotdog | April 21, 2009 at 03:43 PM
Probcast!
weather that's ALL STATISTICS.
also, generally more accurate than the weatherman on your tv.
i like statistics. but then again, i'm not cool
Posted by: katie | April 21, 2009 at 05:30 PM
must
suppress
headache
from
this!!
Posted by: Vodka girl | April 21, 2009 at 09:10 PM
Wow! Really?
Posted by: trick please | April 21, 2009 at 10:01 PM
I saw this article on Yahoo and thought, "Maybe I have a overly simplistic understanding of the statistics." So I read it, and no, 20% chance means exactly what I thought.
Every day I have less and less faith in humanity.
Posted by: Diana | April 22, 2009 at 09:10 AM
Forgive my idiocy, but I never was certain what the percentage meant. Growing up in Miami tempers one to the notion that rain and oppressive humidity are a given.
Oh well: I guess I'll strap on my safety helmet, pin my allergy list to my shirt, and take the shortbus back to grad school :-/
Posted by: K.J. | April 22, 2009 at 11:46 PM
University students would skew the results on purpose because they're required to participate in these things.
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Bzj0Ls
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